Reflecting on a Decade: The Economic Impact of Not Legalizing Cannabis in Ireland

A possible scene from Ireland had we legalised Cannabis .

Ten years ago today, Ireland stood at a crossroads on the issue of cannabis legalization, thanks to then independent TD (Now MEP) Luke Flannagan. It was ultimately defeated in a vote with 111 against and 8 in favour.

Today, we can't help but wonder what might have been, especially when looking at countries like Colorado, USA, where cannabis has been legal since 2014. In this post, we'll explore the theoretical economic opportunity that Ireland may have missed out on.

The Colorado Model:

Colorado's decision to legalize cannabis has been economically transformative. With over $1.7 billion in tax revenue collected since legalization, the creation of thousands of jobs, and a boost in tourism, Colorado's experience serves as a compelling case study.

Tax Revenue:

By mirroring Colorado's trajectory, Ireland could have potentially collected approximately $260 million annually in tax revenue. Over ten years, this figure balloons to a substantial $2.6 billion, which could have supported public services, infrastructure projects, or education.

Job Creation:

The legalization in Colorado has not only created jobs in cannabis retail and cultivation but also stimulated growth in ancillary businesses. Ireland might have seen the creation of 8,000 to 10,000 jobs over a decade, significantly impacting unemployment rates and contributing to economic growth.

Tourism:

Cannabis legalization has turned Colorado into a destination for enthusiasts, contributing to its tourism sector. Ireland, already famed for its landscapes and culture, could have likely seen a similar uptick in tourism figures, diversifying and enriching its tourism offerings.

Cost Savings:

Legalization brings about savings in law enforcement and judicial processes. For Ireland, this could have meant tens of millions of euros saved annually, funds that could have been redirected to other critical areas like health or education.

Market Growth:

Starting from an estimated illegal market size of $100 million, Ireland's legal cannabis market might have grown to over $500 million annually, reflecting a significant shift in the economy and the creation of a new, robust sector.

Healthcare Impact:

The public health impact of legalization can be complex. However, potential savings on prescription drugs and a decrease in opioid-related issues, as seen in some areas of the US, suggest there might have been a silver lining for Ireland's healthcare system as well.

Agricultural Impact:

Ireland's rich agricultural tradition could have embraced cannabis cultivation, potentially adding tens of millions to the sector and opening up new export opportunities.

Conclusion:

While we can only speculate, the figures suggest that Ireland missed out on a multi-billion euro economic opportunity by not legalizing cannabis. This retrospective analysis isn't about lamenting the past but rather understanding the implications of policy decisions on our economy. As the global perspective on cannabis continues to shift, it's crucial for policymakers to consider these economic factors in any future discussions on legalization.